2. Diagnose the problemIdeas

Recognize the different levels of trustworthiness for evidence

By September 30, 2019 No Comments

The quality of your analysis rests on two pillars—good thinking and good evidence—and evaluating the quality of evidence can be hard to do.

In fact, taken individually or as a body, evidence is likely to be incomplete, inconclusive, ambiguous, dissonant, and not perfectly credible (for a discussion, see Strategic Thinking, pp. 97–98).

Let’s focus on that last point: Not all evidence is equally trustworthy. You should give more weight to higher-quality evidence. And, yes, expert opinion is the least trustworthy type. Here’s a shorthand to help you stay afloat—a downloadable graphic that you can print out and keep handy.

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