Not all types of evidence are equally trustworthy. The higher the level, the more confidence you can have.
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Having identified a set of hypotheses you need to test them. To do so, you need to conduct tests that can help you rule out some of the hypotheses. Sounds obvious, right? Conduct the right analysis: easier said than done…
Bazerman and Neale, in their excellent Negotiating rationally, talk about a problem they have given to their class (p.62): Here is a three-number sequence: 2–4–6. Your task is to discover the numeric rule that produced these numbers. To determine the rule,…